Landrigan's Budget Predictions

Kevin Landrigan looks into his crystal ball in this morning's Nashua Telegraph, and predicts which tax increases will make it into the New Hampshire budget:

• Taxing refinancing – 5-to-1 says it happens: It seems oxymoronic to be applying a tax on the only part of the real-estate economy that's really humming along, but that's how state tax money is made, right?

If put to a standalone vote of the rank and file in the House, this new plan would probably go down, but opponents won't get that chance because the budget package comes back for a single up-or-down vote.

• LLC dividends tax loophole – even odds are this happens: This one is too irresistible for budget negotiators not to take. To begin with, they'll argue that it's business tax reform and not a tax increase, and that these closely held companies should have been paying a tax on the annual value of their ownership shares.

It's also an arcane enough part of the business tax code that most who would incline to be critical don't understand it well enough to make a compelling case against it.

Landrigan also predicts the fate of gambling, the capital gains tax, and many of the other tax increases currently on the table.