State revenues came in almost 16 percent lower than expected in August, although liquor and tobacco sales are well ahead of last year's performance.Fahey notes that August is traditionally a low revenue month, so missing the projections is less crucial. September brings in quarterly payments of the state's business taxes, and will go a long ways towards determining whether this budget will meet its revenue expectations.
The state collected $94 million during the month, compared to $111.5 million it hoped to collect.
Net liquor revenues and tobacco taxes produced a combined $33 million for the month, well over the $9 million that business taxes produced. In the first two months of this fiscal year, liquor revenue is up 14 percent over last year, and tobacco taxes, which went up 45 cents a pack on July 1 are 41 percent ahead of last year.
However, tobacco still missed its budget target for the month by $2 million and liquor was $1.2 million short of what needed to keep the budget in balance.
Rep. Steve Vaillancourt had his analysis on the revenue report up yesterday, and offers a tax by tax rundown on the revenue shortfall over at Red Hampshire.
I recall a certain Gov. Lynch forecasting last month that revenues would be UP by 4.5% year-over-year. Having sat on Ways & Means for 4 of my 6 years in the House, I know that the Ways & Means Committee, headed by Income Tax Proponent Susan Almy, falsified beyond any possible mathematical rationale the House revenue forecasts. And we have not hit bottom yet. The State's revenues in a typical recession - and this is NOT a typical recession - generally lag the national economy by about 9 months. We MUST take back the majority in either the House or Senate to block the seemingly inevitable income and/or sales tax.
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